MIDDLE EAST: MAHMOUD ABBAS GIVES UP, ALARM FOR PEACE PROCESS

(by Aldo Baquis)
(ANSAmed) - TEL AVIV - On the day following the
dramatic speech delivered by Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) in which
he gave notice that he would not be standing for a second term
as head of the PNA, Israeli and Palestinian leaders have been
taking stock of the new scenario. With feelings cooled down
somewhat, it appears clear that Abbas does not intend to leave
the helm of Palestinian politics before presidential and general
elections have been held in the Palestinian Territories.
Yesterday, Mahmoud Abbas, 74, pointed out that they would have
to take place in the West Bank, in Gaza (where Hamas are in
absolute political and military control) and in eastern
Jerusalem, despite the dogged Israeli resistance. Scheduled for
January 24 2010, the elections now risk being postponed until
June at the earliest.
Even after the elections, Mahmoud Abbas' intention is to
remain at the top of the PLO and of al Fatah. He would thus seek
to guarantee continuity for the realisation of his political
project: the creation of an independent Palestinian state on
good relations with Israel. ''It is an objective,'' he said
yesterday, ''which can still be attained''.
The main significance of his speech, wrote eastern
Jerusalem's al Quds newspaper today, lies in the fact that Abbas
has energetically sounded an ''alarm bell'' to warn leaders in
Israel, in the United States and across the Arab world that the
stalemate in the peace process is causing the level of
frustration among the Palestinian population to reach dangerous
levels. The Fatah leadership has already rebuffed Abbas'
decision not to stand for election. Hundreds of party activists
were on the streets in Ramallah, Tulkarem and in Jericho today
to re-avow their loyalty in the leader. From Gaza, Hamas is
maintaining that Abbas admitted yesterday that the peace process
is at a dead end. But in Ramallah, this interpretation was
scornfully rejected.
As was inevitable, the press has already started its tipping
of a potential new leader - a possible successor to Mahmoud
Abbas could lead Fatah to victory in the upcoming elections.
None of the names today appear however, to have the requirements
to fit the bill: Marwan Barghuti, an al Fatah leader with a
considerable following in the West Bank, is serving a life
sentence in Israel: Deputy Foreign Minister Dany Ayalon today
ruled out any talk of a pardon, even if he is elected. Others of
his generation, Jibril Rajub and Mohammed Dahlan, former home
defence commanders in the West Bank and Gaza, have indeed been
mentioned as candidates, along with 70-year-olds Nabil Shaath
and Abu Maher Ghneim. Another name in the running is that of
Nasser Qidwa, former PLO ambassador at the UN and nephew of
Yasser Arafat. Premier Salam Fayad, who can boast of concrete
achievements over recent years, has not ever been an al-Fatah
member and is seen as a foreign body in the organisation.
Meanwhile Israel is taking a cautious stance: ''We do not want
to interfere in internal Palestinian affairs'' said Ayalon. But
between the lines one reads concern at the possibility that, in
persuading Abbas to reconsider his decision, the United States
might pay ''a political price'' to Israel's detriment. This is
just one more worry for premier Benyamin Netanyahu, who is about
to depart for the United States to take part in an event
organised by the country's Jewish community, and who is still in
the dark as to whether he will be received by President Barack
Obama, with whom his relationship is somewhat
strained.(ANSAmed).