Zemmour changes scenario ahead of French vote

Survey, Républicains out of run-off, gauche in tatters

22 October, 17:43

    PARIS - Eric Zemmour has affected the political scenario ahead of presidential elections scheduled in the spring, according to a new poll. If only a few months ago Macron and Le Pen were expected to duel in the run-off vote, like five years ago, a survey published on Friday by Le Monde said the far-right candidate was likely to compete in the second round of elections with the outgoing president. Zemmour is also taking votes from the institutional right, the Républicains, who at the moment don't have a candidate able to reach the final challenge, according to the poll. Only fragments, or little more, remain of the gauche, like in 2017, it said.

    If all surveys so far have said that Emmanuel Macron will be voted by one-fourth of those casting their ballots and that he is the likely winner of the run-off election, regardless of the rival, the qualification of the candidate of the Rassemblement National, strongly weakened by Zemmour's competition, is not taken for granted anymore. The 16-17% that a new Ipsos survey for Le Monde gives to Eric Zemmour is considered as subtracting votes from Le Pen as well as the Républicains. According to the poll, they would not reach the second round either with Xavier Bertrand, who is considered the likely candidate, or Valérie Pécresse or Michel Barnier. In the first and most likely hypothesis, the survey gives Macron between 23.1 and 24.9%, of the vote, followed by Zemmour between 15.2 and 16.8%, Marine Le Pen between 14.3 and 15.7% and Bertrand (12.3%-13.7%), the ecologist Yannick Jadot (8.4-9.6%), the far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon (7.4-8.6%) and the Socialist mayor of Paris, Anne Hidalgo, with 4.5-5.5%.

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